Hocus Pocus Election Prediction
By Gary Morton at http://CanadaElection.org
* This piece was inspired by Peter Worthington. Yesterday he published the worst column of the election. Titled “An Upset in the Making” the write-up informs us that if polls hold we’ll be seeing a Harper majority government. The poll Worthington refers to is not SES, Compass, Ekos or Ipsos-Reid … as those polls all show a close race. His favoured poll is an America Online Internet Straw Poll that shows Harper with a big lead. So we see that the Worthington article is little more than hocus pocus. And if he can get away with it so can others.
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So I’ve got my dream catcher in the window and Shadow the black cat is sitting there under the crystal ball … and I fall into a nod and what do I see.
I see that for you the election means voting for the best government and the best candidate. Depending on where you are the best candidate may be a Liberal, Ndper or Green or Bloc person.
On Monday the Liberals might not have the seat count. My guess is a squeaker, but that the Liberals will do better than projected as many incumbent candidates hold on and get the vote out. I don’t see a number … but my guess is Liberals 107, Tories 109.
I also see Paul Martin involved in frustrating negotiations … forming what will be a coalition government.
And I don’t see a reason but my best guess is that Stephen Harper can’t form a stable government and the Governor General will have to ask Martin to do it.
Without seats in Quebec, Stephen Harper wants to put a Quebec Tory senator in cabinet … that combined with his policy package will leave Gilles Duceppe with no option other than dealing with Martin for something better. The NDP will also deal with Martin.
Simply put, the Tories can’t form a stable minority government. It wouldn’t last for any period of time.
So that’s my hocus pocus election prediction. Prove me wrong Peter Worthington. Shake out the straw polls and rattle your brain and we’ll see who is closest to the mark on Monday.
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