Canada: How the Liberals Won in 2004

By Gary Morton at CanadaElection.org

June 29^th, 2004

   Election evening came and created a liberal minority government … but the media had Jack Layton and the NDP holding the balance of power.

   By morning the news of final counts had robbed Jack of that balance.

   The stars weren’t there for Jack Layton … it was almost like one of those pagan gods near his home by Kensington had reached down and said, “Jack, you haven’t been firm enough in your support for proportional representation. So I’m stealing a bunch of seats from you and leaving you with a bitter tongue that sings for PR.”

  That’s it for Jack … let’s get back to Paul Martin and the Liberals. He started the election skiing downhill. The sponsorship scandal and the health tax in the budget of the Ontario liberals were factors he couldn’t control. The Conservatives under Stephen Harper rose in the polls … a tight race with seat projections vastly favouring the new Tories.

   The Liberal campaign was weak … and foundering.

   So what saved Martin from certain defeat?

   First the TV debate happened … and like I said back then, Martin looked like the boss. He wasn’t slugged off the stage and in this election something like that had to happen for Harper to keep rising.

   ... and in the debate voters and media had to start dissecting Harper’s platform.

   The shocking weaknesses became apparent and the Liberals suddenly realized that if the sponsorship scandal and other items were factors they couldn’t control … the truth about the Conservatives’ hidden agenda was one they could.

   As Stephen Harper drifted off into arrogance, musing about his expected majority government … and as his party’s extremists came forward to reveal themselves as intolerant on women’s issues … and gay issues and Charter rights and so on … the hex began and unbelievable and unexplainable mistakes occurred.

   The Conservatives accused Paul Martin of supporting child porn … sort of worse than the alien kitten eater thing that happened in the Ontario provincial election.

    Then Harper shut his campaign down for a day to recover the losses and it was all downhill from there … as the Harper camp lost its charisma … Martin felt the wind at his back … performed well, and the polls began to show a liberal rise.

   Paul Martin and the liberals ended up with a small lead in popular vote and seats … and that got published in the Saturday Toronto Star just before Election Day.

   While other papers were posting a tight race, readers were looking for a winner. And the Star showed Martin to be the probable winner… and they also endorsed him.

   On Sunday the papers showed Harper dogged by protesters … his handlers carried him across the finish line to the Western ballot boxes … wrapped in cellophane. The media traveling with him got almost zero access to him … this was damage control and a foolish hope that doing nothing would garner a win at the polls.

   Paul Martin did the opposite … he decided to fight to win and went from Atlantic Canada to BC … he was seen with feet in both oceans and talking about policy and equality … a genuine leader.

   Added to that were the liberal attack ads … a sort of reminder course for Canadians who have forgotten who Stephen Harper really is.

   And in the end, they remembered and said … you mean this Kennedy look-alike is really that National Citizen’s Coalition leader from down there on Adelaide Street in Toronto … that right wing extremist who wants to kill off just about every good thing we have in Canadian Society.

   They remembered and they got scared … NDP voters in Ontario switched to Paul Martin’s liberals to make sure the Conservatives wouldn’t get in.

   Meaning we end with what is called a stable minority … the Liberals, NDP and the Bloc would like to see something accomplished in a new session of parliament. All three parties have excellent leaders.

   Let’s hope it does happen.

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