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Election 2006 looks to me like a case where the larger media is still brainwashed by its own deceit. The Ottawa Citizen today spins it as Tories Win in Every Region. The actual facts are as follows. The Liberals won more seats than the Conservatives in every province from Newfoundland to the Western border of Ontario. The three far North ridings were won by the Liberals and the NDP. In BC the NDP made big gains and added insult to injury as the Tories actually went up in the popular vote and lost seats. The Gomery effect gave the Conservatives some seats in Quebec that may not be long term, and that means that Conservative power still lies in a rump from the West that has no mandate to enforce extremist policies on the larger part of the country. Even less credibility falls to the Conservatives when we understand that even their small minority is largely a creation of the media.
On January 16th in an
article still posted at the website I said, “The way it will actually
end is in a dead heat. Meaning the seat count will defy any party with a
lead in the polls, giving them less than expected. That has happened so we have to wonder where the media and the pollsters were coming from with their Big Conservative Victory banner. Five of the six main pollsters showed a 9 to10 point or larger Conservative lead at the end of the campaign and that would have produced a Conservative majority. If I didn’t believe them it’s because I checked and saw faulty polling methods. The Strategic Counsel was the most deceptive, having a website with the Globe and CTV logos on the front page and very questionable polling methods. Ekos came out with a final poll showing a substantial Tory lead, but Ekos is the pollster that predicted a Conservative Minority in 2004 when the Liberals won by 36 seats. So who would believe them? CPAC -SES did get the numbers right in the final 3 days of the election, so why did the others land outside their margins of error? I believe the Tory lead was never more than 7 to 8 points and the days of the 17 point lead nothing more than a figment in the imaginations of the media, pundits and the Strategic Counsel. It’s not a good thing for Canada when the winner may have been projected into power by faulty polls and lying pundits, who know that people like to vote for the winner. Still, it’s not all bad. I favour minority governments so for me the numbers are magic. If the NDP and the one Independent supported Harper he’d still be short one vote. Stephen Harper is in the laughable position of needing Belinda to cross the floor to a cabinet position … or dealing with the Liberals or the Bloc. What’s not laughable for Harper is what I predict may happen in the future. I do my predictions by dreams now as polls can’t be trusted. My latest dream (just as scientific as any poll) has Harper riding in as a giant and mighty knight in a scary suit of armour, and then being cut down mercilessly from behind by a sword that appears from nowhere … it’s bearer unseen.
Yes it may happen. If the Liberals
grab a new leader, with some charisma, the Conservatives could be routed
next time around. * End Note
Five
of Six main pollsters showed a 10 point Conservative lead at the end
of the campaign and that would have produced a Conservative majority.
A reader pointed out that my article at
CanadaElection.org accusing the pollsters of boosting the
Conservatives was wrong because SES got it right on, only giving the
Greens a bit too much.
To me that makes my article more
correct. The fact that SES could hit it dead on shows that the others
may have in fact been trying to boost the Tories -- poll corruption
for political purposes.
The polls were
Strategic
Counsel --- 10 pt Tory lead on Jan 22 (they at some points in the
campaign were in the news with 13 and 17pt Tory leads)
Ekos --- 10.2 tory
lead on Jan 20
Ipsos-Reid --- 11 pt tory lead on Jan 22
Leger --- 9 pt
tory lead on Jan 19
Decima --- 10 pt tory
lead Jan 15
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