May 28, 2005. 12:41 PM 
The Star

Liberals lead slumping Tories in poll
But `whipsawed' voters are volatile, survey shows
CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA — The Conservatives continue to slump in voter support despite daily allegations of Liberal sponsorship misdeeds, a new poll suggests.

The phone survey by Decima Research Inc. puts the Liberals ahead with 36 per cent of decided voters compared to 27 per cent for the Conservatives and 21 per cent for the NDP.

In the crucial battleground of Ontario where one-third of Commons seats are centred, the Liberals lead by 16 percentage points.

The separatist Bloc Quebecois has a hammerlock on Quebec with 53 per cent of support, versus 21 per cent for the Liberals, 12 per cent for the Tories and nine per cent for the NDP.

Prime Minister Paul Martin has promised a federal election call within 30 days of a report by Justice John Gomery on the sponsorship scandal. His conclusions are expected in December but could be delayed.

And the minority Liberals may be brought down sooner if the Conservatives force and win a non-confidence vote.

Decima polled just over 1,000 adults across Canada from May 19 to 22.

Polling began two days after Belinda Stronach's stunning defection to the Liberals from the Conservatives. Losing the urban Ontario social moderate was a major blow to the Tories and leader Stephen Harper.

But the survey suggests voter intentions are anything but stable.

Decima CEO Bruce Anderson calls it a "whipsawing effect."

Almost half of those polled, 48 per cent, said they had changed their mind in recent months about which party to support. One in four said they are struggling to decide and have switched loose allegiances repeatedly.

Of those respondents — most are low-income women aged between 25 and 44 — more than one-third now say they'd support the Liberals, 27 per cent would vote NDP and 24 per cent Tory.

Such volatility is normally reserved for election campaigns, Anderson says.

But many voters have been paying close attention to the Gomery inquiry and the political upheaval on Parliament Hill as parties jockey for power.

The resulting uncertainty helps explain sharp swings from one poll to the next, Anderson says.

"These whipsawed voters are different from traditionally defined undecided voters, who often are those with a fairly passive interest in politics.

"Instead, the whipsawed voters are responding actively to events of the day, most notably the Gomery commission, the debate over election timing and the functioning of the House of Commons."

The good news for Conservatives is those voters may well change their minds again.

The Decima survey is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


The Star May 3 2005

Why Harper is rolling dice on an election campaign
Feels scandal has struck a nerve with the public

But party unsure how opinions will shift in the future

TONDA MACCHARLES
OTTAWA BUREAU

OTTAWA—Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's vow to "put this government out of its misery" was forceful, verging on nasty.

But in this, like so much, Harper had calculated his approach. He even phoned some MPs and test-drove the "misery" line last week before he publicly declared the Liberal-NDP budget pact a "deal with the devil."

Now it is all about how and not whether to trigger a spring or summer election — an election polls show many Canadians don't want, but one Harper believes can put his party in power.

Harper consulted his caucus last night. On Friday, he consulted the party executive via teleconference and asked national councillors what they thought.

But his main consultations are with a tight inner circle that has not expanded much in 14 months since he took over as leader of the merged party. At the centre of that circle is Harper himself as the key strategic architect of much that is unfolding.

So what is driving his calculation to go sooner than later?

Insiders say there are many factors: The need for ethical government and stability in government decision-making — something Conservatives say is not possible in "the dynamic of a minority government in peril."

Harper has also calculated the party's own cohesion after a policy convention in March left him with more moderate policy planks, and a strong 84 per cent leadership backing.

But it all appears to come down to a greater certainty about what the Conservatives have going for them now versus what they might face 10 months down the road — when the Liberals would prefer an election.

"Logistically, we're ready," said one insider. "What it comes down to is the question of the certainty of what could play out, versus who knows what the probability is of things happening in the future."

Harper fears Justice John Gomery's report on the sponsorship inquiry will be derailed by legal challenges on the part of those like former prime minister Jean Chrétien, who may be fingered for blame by Gomery.

Harper already argues the standard for holding the Liberal government to account is not a strict legal one, but an ethical judgment voters can make once they've heard the testimony.

"We've looked at the polls and we have our own polling and we have a reasonable idea of what conditions are now," said a Harper adviser. "Whereas the further you go out into the future, you're taking a chance that things might change."

A major factor is that the public anger has "engaged" over the sponsorship program in a way it never did over the "HRDC boondoggle, the gun registry or the Radwanski" overspending affairs, said the insider.

The shifting public opinion polls are not a deterrent, precisely because they are shifting and still show Canadians taking a serious look at the party.

"Overall, if you step back and you see where we are sitting — which is basically where we finished last time and in all likelihood the scenario won't see us getting any worse through the campaign — I think people have to be positive to neutral. They're not going to be fanatically against proceeding," the adviser predicted.

Senior Tory organizers say the upcoming election campaign will focus on presenting the party as a squeaky-clean government-in-waiting. To that end, the party is expected to present a series of initiatives aimed at improving ethics and strengthening the role of Parliament.

That will be a large part of how Harper will appeal to Quebecers — as an alternative to the "corrupt Liberals" — and how he will counter charges by the Liberals and NDP who are already painting him as a threat to national unity, in part because of working with the Bloc Québécois.

Harper is being advised to project an image of optimism, and while the Conservative campaign platform will closely resemble the 2004 version, it is expected to centre more keenly on decentralized federalism and Canada's ties with the U.S.

Several top Tories acknowledge Harper's "positives" — those tricky estimates of how the public views Harper — are not good. But others think Canadians have come to know Harper better over the past year.

"Certainly his trust factor has gone way up," said one. "I'd still like to see him out a little more with the wife and kids to round out his image. But I don't think that's going to be as much of a critical factor, certainly not entering into the decision."

The other factor some Conservative allies of Harper's insist will not enter the equation is Harper's personal ambition.

"That's not a big factor for him," said a source. "Unlike some of his rivals, and Paul Martin, I mean his whole life ambition has not been to be prime minister of Canada. He wants to be prime minister and he wants to achieve something positive for Canada. But on the other hand, if he gives it his best shot, he's not going to come back 10 times like Joe Clark ..."

"Ten years ago, I can tell you, we weren't working full time to make Stephen prime minister. I wouldn't call him the accidental prime minister, but certainly for some of these guys it's an absolutely consuming obsession. That's not the case with Stephen at all."

Deputy Conservative leader Peter MacKay, often touted as a potential Harper rival, dismisses any suggestion that internal leadership challenges are a factor.

"Everybody is behind the leader," said MacKay in an interview.

With files from Sean Gordon

 

May 1, 2005
The Star

Layton scoffs at Tory conversion
Says party hasn't demonstrated commitment to new social policy
ROB FERGUSON
QUEEN'S PARK BUREAU

Voters should take Conservative "conversions" on child care, medicare and the Canada Health Act with a grain of salt, says federal NDP Leader Jack Layton.

"I don't know what Stephen Harper is up to," Layton said of the Conservative leader, who Friday shifted positions to support the Canada Health Act and the federal government's role in supporting medicare.

The new Tory tack came as Harper's intergovernmental affairs critic, Rona Ambrose, said a Conservative government would honour the federal government's promise of $700 million for provincial child-care programs this year.

"I would assume if there is, indeed, some kind of conversion here, that Canadians are going to want to test-drive that for some considerable time before they actually believe it," Layton told reporters after a speech to the Ontario NDP's provincial council meeting yesterday. The speech was to about 150 party supporters at a downtown hotel converted into a residence for University of Toronto students.

"I don't believe there's been a demonstrated commitment to our public health-care system by the Conservatives over the years or in their platform."

Harper acknowledged Friday that a recent proposal by former Reform party leader Preston Manning and former Ontario premier Mike Harris to kill the Canada Health Act, which governs medicare, is a "non-starter" for Canadians.

The proposal rekindled fears about Conservative health policy, which cost the party during the campaign for last June's election as Liberals reminded voters that Harper urged Ottawa to scrap the act two years ago.

On child care, Harper said Friday it would make no sense to tear up agreements being reached with several provinces, but a Conservative government would press on with its own plan, including cash supplements to parents.

Despite new polls suggesting support for the federal Liberals is rebounding after weeks of decline, Layton said the NDP faces a tough slog in helping the federal government's revised budget get passed.

"We'll be focusing all our attention on that," said Layton, whose party agreed to back the budget in exchange for $4.6 billion in new spending, including more gas tax money for cities.

Harper is furious at what Conservatives call a "deal with the devil," which also delayed corporate tax cuts, and vowed to push for a non-confidence vote that could force an election.

But a poll in yesterday's Star by EKOS Research — the first conducted after the budget pact — shows Harper may have lost an advantage he enjoyed for several weeks amid damaging testimony in the Liberal sponsorship scandal inquiry.

The Star poll has Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals with the support of 32.5 per cent of decided voters nationally, compared with 30.5 per cent for the Conservatives and 19 per cent for the NDP. The poll of 1,212 Canadians has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The latest numbers are a dramatic turnaround from three weeks ago when the Liberals plummeted to 25 per cent support nationally and the Conservatives reached 36 per cent.

Despite using his speech to trumpet achievements of the NDP in previous minority parliaments, winning advances like medicare and the Canada Pension Plan, Layton wouldn't say what other measures he'd like to see if the government survives.

"Right now our entire focus is on the budget," he said after the speech.

==================================

The Star

Martin pushes his way back
Liberals pull ahead of Tories

Reverse slide in Ontario support

SUSAN DELACOURT
OTTAWA BUREAU CHIEF

OTTAWA—The political alliance between federal Liberals and New Democrats is helping push Prime Minister Paul Martin's government onto the comeback trail, according to a new Toronto Star poll.

The poll, by EKOS Research Associates, was the first to be conducted after Martin made his deal with NDP Leader Jack Layton to help save the government. It shows the Liberals rebounding and back ahead of the Conservatives nationally after a dramatic plunge earlier this month.

Martin's Liberals now stand at 32.5 per cent among decided voters, compared to 30.5 per cent for the Tories and 19 per cent for the NDP. Just three weeks ago, the Liberals bottomed out at 25 per cent while Conservatives were rising with 36 per cent support nationally.

In Ontario, the Liberals have climbed back to 39 per cent while the Tories are at 33; a near complete reversal of results a couple of weeks ago and more in keeping with the province's Liberal-friendly tradition. With 106 seats, Ontario will be the main battleground in the election.

In fact, overall, it seems that most of the dramatic trends witnessed at the beginning of this month have now reversed, the Star-La Presse poll shows, and Martin's new pact with Layton could be proving to be a helpful factor in the Liberal bounceback. On Tuesday night, Martin and Layton announced an agreement that forces the Liberals to rewrite the budget in return for NDP support in securing its passage.

When EKOS asked respondents which federal political alliance made them least comfortable, a full 59 per cent declared unease with a Conservative-Bloc Québécois alliance, compared to 33 per cent who said a Liberal-NDP pact.

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has declared that he wants to put the government "out of its misery" by voting with the Bloc to defeat the Liberals, even with the NDP siding with Martin.

Martin and Layton have been saying for several days that Harper is now in bed with the separatists in an attempt to force an early election and prevent major progressive programs such as daycare and public housing from going ahead.

Today's poll shows that Martin and Layton's efforts may be having some effect. EKOS found that public anger is abating over the dramatic allegations of kickbacks and tax-dollar abuse revealed earlier this month at Justice John Gomery's inquiry into the sponsorship scandal.

Harper's similar fanning-out efforts this week, on the other hand, seem not to be helping. Indeed, EKOS found that 50 per cent of Canadians "just can't see" the Conservative leader being elected as prime minister. Nor are Harper's chances improved when people see him as an ally of the Bloc.

"While Stephen Harper may see an NDP-(Liberal) alliance as unholy, his reliance on the BQ to dislodge the Liberals may well constitute the Conservatives' most glaring exposed flank," EKOS president Frank Graves says.

"Paul Martin and Jack Layton are regarded as a far less frightening political couple; rather, it is Stephen Harper and Gilles Duceppe who are seen as disturbing and beyond odd bedfellows."

But the Liberals aren't out of the woods. Buried among generally positive news for the Liberals are these results:

A majority of Canadians, 60 per cent, feel it's time for a new government in Ottawa. Still, that's roughly the same number who thought so a year ago, too.

Anger over the sponsorship issue is still running higher than anger over any early election call. While 52 per cent of Canadians said they would be inclined to punish a party at the ballot box over the sponsorship issue, only 35 per cent said they would hold an early election against any party when making their voting choice.

"..(Stephen Harper's) reliance on the BQ to dislodge the Liberals may well constitute the Conservatives' most glaring exposed flank."

Frank Graves, EKOS president

 

Martin is seen more as part of the problem than as part of the solution. While 32 per cent said he had no part in the sponsorship scandal and deserves credit for calling the inquiry, almost twice that number — 62 per cent — agreed he should be accountable because he was a key player in the government that ushered in the program.

In Quebec, things are not so rosy for Martin. The Bloc Québécois stands at 49 per cent, the Liberals, 21, NDP, 14, and Conservatives, 11.

But on a countrywide basis, Martin seems to be holding his own, relative to Harper. Overall, 36 per cent of respondents identified Martin as the best leader for the country as a whole, compared to 28 per cent who saw Harper through that lens.

When respondents were asked which leader was best for the interests of particular provinces, Martin was seen as best for Ontario, B.C. and the Atlantic, while Harper scored highest in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The poll was conducted this week, from Tuesday to Thursday, among 1,212 Canadians of voting age (18) or older. The results are deemed valid to within 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error increases when results are subdivided by region.

Harper and Martin were taking a low-keyed, even skeptical view of polls yesterday.

Scott Reid, a spokesman for Martin, said: "The Prime Minister has something more lasting than any poll. He has a plan — a plan to ensure Canadians get a full reckoning for what occurred with the sponsorship program and a plan to deliver on the priorities that Canadians care about such as better child care, stronger health care and a greener, cleaner environment.

"By way of comparison, Mr. Harper is all anger and ambition. His only message to Canadians right now is that he's bound and determined to kill this budget and force an early election — even going so far as to work with the separatist Bloc Québécois."

In Calgary, asked why his party seemed to be going down in support, Harper said: "We've had how many polls in the last two weeks? We've had at least a dozen or more public polls. They're all different. They all contradict each other and I don't take any significance from any of them. It's going to be the voters who make the decision."

Still, this new EKOS poll shows that a week can indeed be a lifetime in politics and especially a week in which political leaders have been engaged in such frenetic activity. Martin, Harper and Layton inundated Ontario with visits this week, while the Liberal-NDP deal was being negotiated and Conservatives were weighing the public appetite for an election.

The poll shows more Canadians would like to see a majority government than a minority government, a reversal of attitudes seen in February 2004. But is also finds a public resigned to a minority, with 69 per cent predicting that as the likely outcome of the next election.

The Liberals have 132 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives 99, the Bloc 54, NDP 19. There are three independents and one vacancy.

New Democrats have reason to cheer today's poll results, with Graves saying: "Not since the salad days of the 1980s have the NDP been poised to exert such influence on the Canadian political scene."

The NDP tops all other parties as the second choice, with 24 per cent of respondents saying they would move their vote to Layton's party.